Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + City Builder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a City Builder RTS?

RTS + City Builder

Of 151 developers who shipped a City Builder RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 240 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.0M, ×2704 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 240 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 240 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + City Builder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 151
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.3k → $5.8k → $67k → $1.6k → $16k → $99k → $14k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + City Builder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 151
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Median $16k (exactly $16,184)
Top 25% $314k (exactly $314,048)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998)
Developers, 2 yr 151
Released games 441
Announced 240
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, City Builder; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Simulation
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 116,225 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $310k, 1 in 20 over $4.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 6 in 10 of the 91 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 240 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Dyson Sphere Program · EA older $19.99 83,523 97% 2.5M $50M (exactly $50,088,743) Youthcat Studio
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition older $34.99 37,093 84% 1.1M $39M (exactly $38,936,522) World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires)
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.