Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 31 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×766 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 56 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 56 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $37k → $2.6k → $899 → $8.6k → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,516)
Top 5% $364k (exactly $363,758)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 61
Announced 56
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Card Battler, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 17,445 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Ash of Gods: The Way older $24.99 416 80% 12k $312k (exactly $311,875) AurumDust
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Castle Morihisa older $14.99 348 66% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) Smokingbear Studio
Fatermyth older $9.99 486 81% 15k $146k (exactly $145,654) KDream
Frostrain 2 $10.99 374 89% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) nemonan
FUTA FUCKS FEMBOYS $12.99 276 88% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) Horny Capybara Studio
Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love $29.99 76 92% 2.3k $68k (exactly $68,377) ASa Project
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
Succubless $11.99 146 67% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,516) Supa Doge
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.