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Should I ship a Crafting Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Crafting + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 69 developers who shipped a Crafting Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 236 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×564 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 236 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $390 (exactly $390) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,174) |
| Top 5% | $354k (exactly $354,423) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 69 |
| Released games | 220 |
| Announced | 236 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Crafting
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Crafting, Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 52,241 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 236 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + SportsFair
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + IdlerFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + WesternPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
Gothic 1 Remake 2026 · $39M 
Disney Dreamlight Valley 2023 · $26M 
Mon Bazou 2025 · $9.6M 
WitchSpring R 2023 · $7.2M 
Cultist Simulator 2018 · $6.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
| | Disney Dreamlight Valley | older | $39.99 | 22,027 92% | 661k | $26M (exactly $26,425,792) | Gameloft |
| | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat | |
| | WitchSpring R | older | $34.99 | 6,858 95% | 206k | $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) | KIWIWALKS |
| | Cultist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 10,496 82% | 315k | $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) | Weather Factory |
 | Out of Ore | older | $24.99 | 3,978 85% | 119k | $3.0M (exactly $2,982,307) | North Modding Company AB |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | Gedonia | older | $14.99 | 3,659 87% | 110k | $1.6M (exactly $1,645,452) | Kazakov Oleg |
 | Wild West Legacy | older | $26.99 | 1,706 39% | 51k | $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) | Moon Punch Studio |
 | The Oregon Trail | older | $29.99 | 1,220 79% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,097,634) | Gameloft |
 | Medieval Blacksmith | $19.99 | 591 79% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | OGO Play | |
 | Fallen Priestess: My Sister's Demonic Bloodline | $18.99 | 622 72% | 19k | $354k (exactly $354,353) | BBQ大好き | |
 | GIRLS MADE PUDDING | $9.99 | 866 95% | 26k | $260k (exactly $259,540) | Kazuhide Oka | |
 | City 20 | · EA | $19.99 | 197 72% | 5.9k | $118k (exactly $118,141) | Untold Games |
 | Elder Ring | · EA | $9.99 | 230 40% | 6.9k | $69k (exactly $68,931) | Funny as Hell |
 | Island Market Simulator | $12.99 | 171 76% | 5.1k | $67k (exactly $66,639) | Zentium Studio | |
 | Bonjour, Cream Inside 💦 | $14.99 | 119 68% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,514) | Juicy Peach Games 🍑 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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