Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Combat + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 77 developers who shipped a Combat Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 196 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $4.3M, ×6957 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 196 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 196 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.8k → $6.6k → $178 → $4.3k → $716 → $1.1k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $297 (exactly $297)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 226
Announced 196
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 163,196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $720, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $4.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 196 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
Skoof Simulator older $29.99 935 83% 28k $841k (exactly $841,220) PropilGames
Blades of Fire $39.99 523 74% 16k $627k (exactly $627,443) MercurySteam
Quadrober Simulator $29.99 684 79% 21k $615k (exactly $615,395) PropilGames
Foretales older $19.99 779 87% 23k $467k (exactly $467,166) Alkemi
Fallen Priestess: My Sister's Demonic Bloodline $18.99 622 72% 19k $354k (exactly $354,353) BBQ大好き
Reach $29.99 244 66% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) nDreams Elevation
ZENONIA 1 $9.99 430 80% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) Com2us Holdings, CFK Co., Ltd.
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.