Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Choices Matter

Only 5 developers shipped a Choices Matter Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fleetbreakers, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 10 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,188)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,436)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,242)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 26
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Choices Matter
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 11,184 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 10 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sins of a Solar Empire II older $49.99 7,147 83% 214k $11M (exactly $10,718,356) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Gord older $49.99 809 53% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,257) Covenant.dev
Accident older $14.99 1,462 76% 44k $657k (exactly $657,461) Duality Games, Spirit Games Studio
Counter Terrorist Agency older $19.99 479 43% 14k $287k (exactly $287,256) Play2Chill
Drox Operative 2 older $19.99 275 89% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Soldak Entertainment
Homeseek older $24.99 190 62% 5.7k $142k (exactly $142,443) Traptics
Zombasite older $19.99 194 76% 5.8k $116k (exactly $116,342) Soldak Entertainment
Din's Legacy older $19.99 185 77% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Soldak Entertainment
The Last Express Gold Edition older $6.99 332 79% 10k $70k (exactly $69,620) Dotemu
Aeon of Sands - The Trail older $16.79 111 85% 3.3k $56k (exactly $55,911) Two Bits Kid
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Yamizome Liberator $34.95 9 66% 270 $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Escu:de
Last Signal $0.99 40 72% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,188) Under Heaven Studios
Benchmark Your Skills $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Kitsu Games
MMM Weird Adventure $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Rayos Fotonicos

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.