Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Fighting game?

Fighting + Choices Matter

Only 6 developers shipped a Choices Matter Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mortal Rite, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.4k against a market of $1.5k. 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 14 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Fighting + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $23,834)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 34
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Choices Matter
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 27,174 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 14 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdoms of Amalur: Re-Reckoning older $39.99 6,305 78% 189k $7.6M (exactly $7,564,108) KAIKO, Big Huge Games, 38 Studios
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Gigantic: Rampage Edition older $19.99 3,795 65% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,862) Abstraction Games
Fight'N Rage older $19.99 2,557 92% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,433) sebagamesdev
Mayhem Brawler older $19.99 836 89% 25k $501k (exactly $501,349) Hero Concept
Swords of Gurrah · EA older $14.99 622 78% 19k $280k (exactly $279,713) Devster, LLC
Cobra Kai: The Karate Kid Saga Continues older $19.99 417 84% 13k $250k (exactly $250,075) Flux Games
Majikoi! Love Me Seriously! older $34.99 212 95% 6.4k $223k (exactly $222,536) Minato Soft
Shuyan Saga™ older $14.99 261 86% 7.8k $117k (exactly $117,372) Lofty Sky Entertainment Inc.
Cobra Kai 2: Dojos Rising older $49.99 71 42% 2.1k $106k (exactly $106,479) Flux Games
Mortal Rite · EA $14.99 53 62% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Round Toast Studios
Teach Me Master $9.99 5 20% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) JellyFluff Games
Games of the Monarch's Eye $5.99 8 25% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Choice of Games
Perk Up $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Sphereka
Whotfire $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) TinCity Games
Virus X $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) IcekingPanda

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.