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Should I ship a Crafting Choices Matter game?
Crafting + Choices Matter
Of 137 developers who shipped a Crafting Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 416 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $680k, ×1091 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 416 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $16,997) |
| Top 5% | $685k (exactly $685,454) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 137 |
| Released games | 354 |
| Announced | 416 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Crafting
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Crafting, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Management
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 40,319 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 416 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + SportsFair
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + IdlerFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + WesternPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
Grim Dawn 2016 · $70M 
This War of Mine 2014 · $49M 
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator 2022 · $23M 
Terminator: Resistance 2019 · $20M 
Kingdoms and Castles 2017 · $18M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Grim Dawn | older | $24.99 | 92,979 93% | 2.8M | $70M (exactly $69,706,356) | Crate Entertainment |
| | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
| | Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,870 92% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,710,639) | niceplay games |
| | Terminator: Resistance | older | $39.99 | 16,665 91% | 500k | $20M (exactly $19,993,000) | Teyon |
| | Kingdoms and Castles | older | $19.99 | 30,311 93% | 909k | $18M (exactly $18,177,507) | Lion Shield, LLC |
 | Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey | older | $39.99 | 9,794 81% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,749,862) | Panache Digital Games |
 | Stranded: Alien Dawn | older | $34.99 | 9,715 84% | 291k | $10M (exactly $10,197,836) | Haemimont Games |
 | Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days | · EA | $24.99 | 9,049 89% | 271k | $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) | PikPok |
 | Cultist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 10,496 82% | 315k | $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) | Weather Factory |
 | ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs | $19.99 | 9,209 95% | 276k | $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) | Mandragora | |
 | Of Ash and Steel | $29.99 | 6,091 66% | 183k | $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) | Fire & Frost | |
 | News Tower | $24.99 | 4,316 94% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) | Sparrow Night | |
 | Mind Over Magic | $24.99 | 4,314 86% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) | Sparkypants | |
 | Survivalist: Invisible Strain | $11.99 | 4,014 87% | 120k | $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) | Bob | |
 | Urban Strife | $34.99 | 653 69% | 20k | $685k (exactly $685,454) | White Pond Games | |
 | Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop | $19.99 | 1,108 84% | 33k | $664k (exactly $664,468) | Beard Envy | |
 | Blackthorn Arena: Reforged | $24.99 | 882 66% | 26k | $661k (exactly $661,235) | PersonaeGame Studio | |
 | Reality Break | $24.99 | 683 80% | 20k | $512k (exactly $512,045) | Element Games, LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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