Should I ship a Card Game RPG?
RPG + Card Game
Of 393 developers who shipped a Card Game RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 772 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×581 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 772 games are announced against 231 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,512) |
| Top 25% | $30k (exactly $29,680) |
| Top 5% | $365k (exactly $364,618) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 393 |
| Released games | 1,086 |
| Announced | 772 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Battler
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 55,232 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 210 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 772 games are announced against 231 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M 
Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M 
Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022 · $31M 
Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M 
Sultan's Game 2025 · $19M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Slay the Spire | older | $24.99 | 191,765 97% | 5.8M | $144M (exactly $143,766,220) | Mega Crit |
| | Library Of Ruina | older | $29.99 | 40,605 94% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,532,318) | ProjectMoon |
| | Marvel's Midnight Suns | older | $59.99 | 17,060 82% | 512k | $31M (exactly $30,702,882) | Firaxis Games |
| | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
| | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross | |
 | Loop Hero | older | $14.99 | 33,816 92% | 1.0M | $15M (exactly $15,207,055) | Four Quarters |
 | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
 | Gloomhaven | older | $34.99 | 13,628 82% | 409k | $14M (exactly $14,305,312) | Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive |
 | Chrono Ark | older | $24.99 | 12,623 90% | 379k | $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) | Al Fine |
 | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | Super Fantasy Kingdom | · EA | $19.99 | 5,630 86% | 169k | $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) | Super Fantasy Games |
 | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | He is Coming | · EA | $19.99 | 3,834 84% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) | Chronocle |
 | Matchmaking Inc. | $8.99 | 5,773 87% | 173k | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) | Wave Games | |
 | Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening | · EA | $17.99 | 2,458 85% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) | U-Secret Studio |
 | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 | $69.99 | 631 67% | 19k | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. | |
 | Cross Blitz | $22.99 | 1,557 74% | 47k | $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) | Tako Boy Studios LLC | |
 | Yao-Guai Hunter | $16.99 | 2,082 83% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) | MyACG Studio | |
 | LONESTAR | $12.99 | 2,183 90% | 65k | $851k (exactly $850,715) | Math Tide |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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