Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Card Game?

Crafting + Card Game

Of 60 developers who shipped a Crafting Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 117 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×243 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 117 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 117 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $29k → $5.1k → $2.4k → $208 → $10k → $898 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,029)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $152,771)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 137
Announced 117
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,412 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 117 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
Everdell older $19.99 577 90% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) Dire Wolf
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Stackmon $13.99 364 75% 11k $153k (exactly $152,771) Riftpoint Entertainment
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
Abra-Cooking-Dabra $12.99 250 75% 7.5k $97k (exactly $97,425) Door 407
Factory Planner · EA $7.99 385 70% 12k $92k (exactly $92,284) Lebleby Games
Kaya's Prophecy $13.99 196 70% 5.9k $82k (exactly $82,261) Jérémie & Thibaut
Sizzle & Stack $9.99 264 72% 7.9k $79k (exactly $79,121) Arvis Games
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Magic Inn · EA $14.99 68 82% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Purpledoor Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.