Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler RTS?

RTS + Card Battler

Of 37 developers who shipped a Card Battler RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 51 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 45% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $3.6k → $299 → $7.2k → $210 (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $88,137)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 85
Announced 51
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Card Battler; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,967 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Big Bia older $14.99 1,296 69% 39k $583k (exactly $582,811) Pixel House Games
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Necronator: Dead Wrong older $12.99 353 67% 11k $138k (exactly $137,564) Toge Productions
Ironclad Tactics older $14.99 237 75% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) Zachtronics
Moon Corona · EA $13.99 210 82% 6.3k $88k (exactly $88,137) 不倒龙工作室, Budaolong Studio
Forest Heroes $9.99 278 83% 8.3k $83k (exactly $83,317) Hoochoo Game Studios
Golem Gates older $24.99 96 83% 2.9k $72k (exactly $71,971) Laser Guided Games, LLC
Aurora Defense · EA $12.99 98 60% 2.9k $38k (exactly $38,191) Moka Games
中国战疫 older $16.99 64 76% 1.9k $33k (exactly $32,621) 不吃蛋黄
九州风流 · EA older $17.99 38 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) GB
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Warena $9.99 42 52% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) Part Time Monkey
Sun Halo $5.99 60 85% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,782) Renka
One King Is Enough $10.99 27 77% 810 $8.9k (exactly $8,902) INVISIBLE GAMES
Soul•Apocalypto $11.99 20 80% 600 $7.2k (exactly $7,194) 卜乙冈(Ploygon)
Cat Guardian $7.99 19 84% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) Yaeegy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.