Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler RPG?

RPG + Card Battler

Of 334 developers who shipped a Card Battler RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 650 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×581 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 650 games are announced against 207 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 650 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 334
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $37k → $7.2k → $6.1k → $8.1k → $4.0k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 334
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,875)
Top 5% $365k (exactly $364,618)
Developers, 2 yr 334
Released games 827
Announced 650
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Card Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 22,079 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 173 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 650 games are announced against 207 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
Office Life $19.99 1,725 88% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) LeiYun Games
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.