Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Card Battler?

Crafting + Card Battler

Of 27 developers who shipped a Crafting Card Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×243 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 61 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 61 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $22k → $809 → $16k → $1.6k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $152,771)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 65
Announced 61
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Card Battler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,561 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Ooblets older $29.99 1,388 91% 42k $1.2M (exactly $1,248,784) Glumberland
WitchHand older $11.99 616 90% 18k $222k (exactly $221,575) Jon Nielsen
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Stackmon $13.99 364 75% 11k $153k (exactly $152,771) Riftpoint Entertainment
Artist Life Simulator older $19.99 173 79% 5.2k $104k (exactly $103,748) Interactive Fate
FreeCell Quest older $9.99 278 81% 8.3k $83k (exactly $83,317) Legend Studio
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Dead Finger Dice $4.99 230 78% 6.9k $34k (exactly $34,431) Rocket Adrift Games
Paper Kingdom $12.99 65 61% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) obece
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
The Last Craftsman $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) AuraTummyache
Decks of the Damned $9.99 54 68% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Thorian Games
Card Artisan $12.99 36 91% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Fullen Games
CrafTAE $7.99 25 88% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) mappe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.