Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell RTS?

RTS + Bullet Hell

Of 30 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59 → $539 → $1.9k → $537 → $300 → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $70,729)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 68
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Bullet Hell; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 679 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $70k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Touhou Spell Carnival 2025 · $73k The Gate Must Stand 2026 · $71k Frontline Crisis 2024 · $63k Hero of Fate 2023 · $44k Defensurvivor 2024 · $35k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
The Gate Must Stand $9.99 236 78% 7.1k $71k (exactly $70,729) Senmu Studio
Frontline Crisis older $5.99 348 87% 10k $63k (exactly $62,536) BCQT
Hero of Fate older $2.99 495 78% 15k $44k (exactly $44,402) Planescape Game Studio
Defensurvivor $10.99 106 71% 3.2k $35k (exactly $34,948) SignatureGamez
Bees vs Zombees $7.99 89 92% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) DeadPixel
Divinity Vassals $11.99 36 75% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Yi
Neon Ascending $3.99 90 82% 2.7k $11k (exactly $10,773) TheCarmineDepth
Survivors: Three Kingdoms older $2.99 85 55% 2.6k $7.6k (exactly $7,625) T3Entertainment
Acid Planet · EA older $2.99 68 79% 2.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,100) Adam Travers
Dark Erosion: Endless Siege $6.99 15 80% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) LaoLiang
Cowboy Busy: Mowdown $3.99 25 84% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) Only Fun Games
TransmuTowers $4.99 14 78% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Edenic Era LLC
Girls vs Goblins $2.99 19 73% 570 $1.7k (exactly $1,704) Maiden Realm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.