Games › RPG › RPG + Bullet Hell
Should I ship a Bullet Hell RPG?
RPG + Bullet Hell
Of 467 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 659 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×402 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 659 games are announced against 263 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,944) |
| Top 5% | $253k (exactly $252,731) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 467 |
| Released games | 1,093 |
| Announced | 659 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Bullet Hell
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Bullet Hell; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 216,084 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 237 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 659 games are announced against 263 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M 
DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M 
Undertale 2015 · $92M 
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... 2021 · $39M 
Vampire Survivors 2022 · $38M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | NieR:Automata™ | older | $39.99 | 115,103 88% | 3.5M | $138M (exactly $138,089,069) | Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc. |
| | DELTARUNE | $24.99 | 124,894 98% | 3.7M | $94M (exactly $93,633,032) | tobyfox | |
| | Undertale | older | $9.99 | 307,601 96% | 9.2M | $92M (exactly $92,188,020) | tobyfox |
| | NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... | older | $59.99 | 21,493 88% | 645k | $39M (exactly $38,680,952) | Square Enix, Toylogic Inc. |
| | Vampire Survivors | older | $4.99 | 251,686 98% | 7.6M | $38M (exactly $37,677,394) | poncle |
 | Neon Abyss | older | $31.49 | 19,709 86% | 591k | $19M (exactly $18,619,092) | Veewo Games |
 | Soulstone Survivors | $14.99 | 25,749 91% | 772k | $12M (exactly $11,579,325) | Game Smithing Limited | |
 | Hero Siege | older | $7.99 | 36,844 67% | 1.1M | $8.8M (exactly $8,831,507) | Panic Art Studios Ltd |
 | Azur Lane Crosswave | older | $39.99 | 6,537 68% | 196k | $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) | IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA |
 | Touhou Luna Nights | older | $17.99 | 13,776 97% | 413k | $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) | Team Ladybug, WSS playground |
 | Magicraft | $15.99 | 15,051 92% | 452k | $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) | Wave Games | |
 | Halls of Torment | $6.66 | 30,752 95% | 923k | $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) | Chasing Carrots | |
 | Rogue: Genesia | $14.99 | 8,111 90% | 243k | $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) | Ouadi Huard | |
 | Pass the Fear | $18.99 | 2,985 79% | 90k | $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) | PlayMud Studio | |
 | Neon Abyss 2 | · EA | $19.99 | 1,968 68% | 59k | $1.2M (exactly $1,180,210) | Veewo Games |
 | Wanderburg | · EA | $14.99 | 2,103 78% | 63k | $946k (exactly $945,719) | Randwerk |
 | Vampire Hunters | $14.99 | 1,941 89% | 58k | $873k (exactly $872,868) | Gamecraft Studios | |
 | Conquest Dark | · EA | $9.99 | 2,530 89% | 76k | $758k (exactly $758,241) | Eldritch Sword Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.