Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Bullet Hell?

PvE + Bullet Hell

Of 565 developers who shipped a PvE Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 763 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 345 developers shipped in the last year and 763 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 763 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 565
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $599 → $449 → $1.2k → $430 → $479 → $419 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 565
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,224)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,406)
Developers, 2 yr 565
Released games 1,127
Announced 763
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Bullet Hell; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 81,414 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 259 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 763 games are announced against 345 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
Rabbit and Steel older $14.99 10,159 96% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,568,502) mino_dev
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Gatekeeper $14.99 2,706 82% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,216,888) Gravity Lagoon
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Portal Dungeon older $14.99 995 88% 30k $447k (exactly $447,452) Dusk Dog Studio
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Funguys Swarm $9.99 1,114 89% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Stairway Games
Vital Shell $5.99 1,752 96% 53k $315k (exactly $314,834) MarvinWizard
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.