Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Fighting game?

Fighting + Bullet Hell

Only 10 developers shipped a Bullet Hell Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Karate Survivor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $960 against a market of $1.5k. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 18 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Fighting + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $716 (exactly $716)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 5% $449k (exactly $448,651)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 44
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 85% positive over 3,139 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $960, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
東方憑依華 ~ Antinomy of Common Flowers. older $24.99 1,769 91% 53k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,219) 黄昏フロンティア
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Maiden and Spell older $12.99 822 97% 25k $320k (exactly $320,333) mino_dev
Pulling No Punches older $9.99 563 95% 17k $169k (exactly $168,731) BrainDead Broccoli
TOUHOU SKY ARENA MATSURI CLIMAX older $19.99 200 86% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) AREAZERO
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 older $8.99 283 92% 8.5k $76k (exactly $76,325) Orange_Juice
Rigid Force Alpha older $19.99 118 78% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) com8com1 Software
NEO AQUARIUM - The King of Crustaceans - older $8.99 252 80% 7.6k $68k (exactly $67,964) Calappa Games
Aces Wild: Manic Brawling Action! older $9.99 221 76% 6.6k $66k (exactly $66,234) Culture Attack Studio, Tyler Doak
Wand Wars older $11.99 183 96% 5.5k $66k (exactly $65,825) Moonradish Inc.
DaemonBride:ADDITIONAL GAIN $19.99 94 82% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) Team Arcana, Kizawaya
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Slime Battles $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Nish Studios
Robots with Guns $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Flash of Stars
Hellfire Rampage VR $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Nazar Korinnyi
Stopping Santa $1.99 12 100% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Hephaestus Games
Meatballs · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Vexa Media
Castle Selbst $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) End Daniek
Ninja Vs Bomb $3.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Sprem

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.