Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Bullet Hell?

Combat + Bullet Hell

Of 786 developers who shipped a Combat Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,021 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $59k, ×95 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 1,021 games are announced against 482 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 1,021 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 786
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $838 → $838 → $748 → $748 → $716 → $299 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 786
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $60k (exactly $59,581)
Developers, 2 yr 786
Released games 1,683
Announced 1,021
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Bullet Hell; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 87,332 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 362 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,021 games are announced against 482 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Rabbit and Steel older $14.99 10,159 96% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,568,502) mino_dev
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
TEVI older $29.99 3,580 88% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,220,926) CreSpirit, GemaYue, Ein Lee
Tiny Rogues · EA older $9.99 10,244 96% 307k $3.1M (exactly $3,070,127) RubyDev
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Pass the Fear $18.99 2,985 79% 90k $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) PlayMud Studio
Project Warlock older $12.00 4,691 87% 141k $1.7M (exactly $1,688,760) Buckshot Software
Luna Abyss $29.99 923 86% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) Kwalee Labs
Monsters are Coming! $8.99 2,718 79% 82k $733k (exactly $733,045) Ludogram
GOD FORSAKEN $13.99 1,728 67% 52k $725k (exactly $725,242) insight studio
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.