Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Bullet Heaven?

Combat + Bullet Heaven

Of 150 developers who shipped a Combat Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 257 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×501 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 257 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 257 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 150
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $369k → $8.7k → $44k → $19k → $7.7k → $16k → $2.9k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 150
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,953)
Top 5% $315k (exactly $314,834)
Developers, 2 yr 150
Released games 194
Announced 257
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 335% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Bullet Heaven; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 86,741 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 257 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M God Of Weapons 2023 · $864k I Am Legion: Stand Survivors 2025 · $656k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
God Of Weapons older $5.99 4,807 84% 144k $864k (exactly $863,818) Imagine Games
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
Cultivation Story: Reincarnation older $9.99 1,994 92% 60k $598k (exactly $597,602) Chi Entertainment Corp.
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games
Vital Shell $5.99 1,752 96% 53k $315k (exactly $314,834) MarvinWizard
Desktop Survivors 98 $4.99 1,338 94% 40k $200k (exactly $200,299) Brandon Hesslau
Machick 2 $6.99 606 88% 18k $127k (exactly $127,078) DeadPixel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.