Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game RPG?

RPG + Board Game

Of 140 developers who shipped a Board Game RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 181 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×423 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 181 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 181 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 140
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $17k → $9.4k → $10k → $1.2k → $2.7k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 140
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,183)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,394)
Developers, 2 yr 140
Released games 479
Announced 181
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Board Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 6,315 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 181 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
Lost In Fantaland $13.99 631 84% 19k $265k (exactly $264,831) Supernature Studio
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.