Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Board Game

Of 192 developers who shipped a Board Game Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 293 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $200; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×353 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 293 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 293 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 192
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $8.2k → $9.4k → $6.7k → $599 → $2.0k → $657 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 192
Bottom 30% $200 (exactly $200)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,423)
Top 5% $168k (exactly $167,571)
Developers, 2 yr 192
Released games 387
Announced 293
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Board Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 10,127 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $200, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $200. 8 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 293 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
NEOVERSE older $19.99 2,882 84% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,728,335) Tinogames Inc.
Vault of the Void older $17.99 2,529 92% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) Spider Nest Games
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Lost In Fantaland $13.99 631 84% 19k $265k (exactly $264,831) Supernature Studio
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.