Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Board Game?

Crafting + Board Game

Of 26 developers who shipped a Crafting Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 36 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 36 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $148 → $119 → $298 → $298 → $628 → $539 → $449 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $200,566)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 88
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Board Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,106 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Dice Legacy older $14.99 892 67% 27k $401k (exactly $401,132) DESTINYbit
Everdell older $19.99 577 90% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) Dire Wolf
Small World older $9.99 931 71% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Days of Wonder
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
WitchHand older $11.99 616 90% 18k $222k (exactly $221,575) Jon Nielsen
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
仙之气 · EA $10.99 114 74% 3.4k $38k (exactly $37,586) 按键工坊
Hero Quest - God of Chaos · EA $19.99 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Future Intellect LLC
Canvas - The Board Game $14.99 19 89% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Mipmap Digital
King's Subsidy $11.99 15 80% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Marcin Henzel
Tinker-World: Arrival at Kedhreon $6.99 10 90% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) From The Cave, TibiSoft
CELESTIAL: FIRE & FORGE $4.99 12 41% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) ERA Soft Studio
FLOWORKS · EA $7.99 7 71% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) QUENCH FORGE
Fill Multicolor $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Alexis Clemente

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.