Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Board Game?

Combat + Board Game

Of 46 developers who shipped a Combat Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $55k, ×89 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 90 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 90 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.7k → $1.1k → $3.7k → $359 → $450 → $628 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $55,763)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 135
Announced 90
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Board Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Tactical
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ultimate General: Civil War 2017 · $7.5M Dune: Imperium 2024 · $2.6M Second Front 2023 · $643k Big Bia 2022 · $583k Foretales 2022 · $467k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Second Front older $34.99 613 78% 18k $643k (exactly $643,466) Hexdraw
Big Bia older $14.99 1,296 69% 39k $583k (exactly $582,811) Pixel House Games
Foretales older $19.99 779 87% 23k $467k (exactly $467,166) Alkemi
Akimbot older $19.99 761 82% 23k $456k (exactly $456,372) Evil Raptor
The Warlock of Firetop Mountain older $19.99 352 76% 11k $211k (exactly $211,094) Tin Man Games
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Dead Grid $12.99 504 93% 15k $196k (exactly $196,409) Atom Void
Checkmate Showdown older $19.99 192 80% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) BadRez Games
Lunchbreak Tactics $14.99 124 76% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Borealys Games
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Calamity Angels: Special Delivery $29.99 20 50% 600 $18k (exactly $17,994) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Stratego® Online $11.99 25 96% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) Wanted 5 Games
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Arete $9.99 22 95% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Molotov Cockatiel Games, Vasilios Kalpa… (Molotov Cockatiel Games, Vasilios Kalpakoglou)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.