Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Third-Person Shooter

Of 29 developers who shipped a Third-Person Shooter Battle Royale in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 111 more are announced, ×6.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 111 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 111 announced, ×6.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $478 → $1.2k → $418 → $1.2k → $0 → $359 (still earning) → $20k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $548k (exactly $548,126)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 173
Announced 111
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 35%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Third-Person Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 54% positive over 17,731 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 111 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M Worms Rumble 2020 · $764k Last Remains 2025 · EA · $548k GangV | VR & PC Battle Royale 2021 · EA · $152k Last Man Sitting 2026 · $107k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Worms Rumble older $14.99 1,698 60% 51k $764k (exactly $763,591) Team17 Digital
Last Remains · EA $19.99 914 51% 27k $548k (exactly $548,126) Earn Alliance
GangV | VR & PC Battle Royale · EA older $14.99 337 60% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) raptor lab
Last Man Sitting $9.99 357 77% 11k $107k (exactly $106,993) DoubleMoose Games
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
Passed Out · EA older $9.99 189 71% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Tacty Studio
Soul Saber 2 older $9.99 180 59% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Yamadaya
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Polygon Bit Battle Royale $9.99 93 60% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Army Troop Studios
GRIT $19.99 34 35% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Team GRIT
FMTC $7.00 75 78% 2.3k $16k (exactly $15,750) FMTC
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
Cat's Wars · EA $1.99 37 81% 1.1k $2.2k (exactly $2,209) Antelus Games
Hentai USSR $0.99 39 87% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,158) Who We Are Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.