Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Survival

Of 41 developers who shipped a Survival Battle Royale in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 22 developers shipped in the last year and 106 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 106 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $6.0k → $60 → $239 → $449 → $120 → $150 (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,290)
Top 5% $328k (exactly $328,172)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 221
Announced 106
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 40%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 54% positive over 31,473 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $180, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M SAND: Raiders of Sophie 2026 · EA · $9.4M Blazing Sails 2023 · $3.8M 武侠乂 The Swordsmen X 2020 · $1.8M Bloodshore 2021 · $371k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Blazing Sails older $14.99 8,361 87% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,759,942) Get Up Games, Iceberg Interactive
武侠乂 The Swordsmen X older $24.99 2,415 46% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,810,526) 上海杜昂网络科技有限公司
Bloodshore older $14.99 826 68% 25k $371k (exactly $371,452) Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Way… (Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Wayout Pictures, Posterity Entertainment)
Final Sentence $9.99 1,095 84% 33k $328k (exactly $328,172) Button Mash
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
Down To One older $4.99 1,606 35% 48k $240k (exactly $240,418) Gadget Games
Out of Reach: Treasure Royale older $14.99 337 58% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) Space Boat Studios
Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) older $19.99 188 81% 5.6k $113k (exactly $112,744) FREE STYLE, Inc., KONAMI
Last Man Sitting $9.99 357 77% 11k $107k (exactly $106,993) DoubleMoose Games
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Back：Fade $6.99 191 76% 5.7k $40k (exactly $40,053) MYSTERY CROWN
Polygon Bit Battle Royale $9.99 93 60% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Army Troop Studios
The Great Axe $19.99 13 84% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Gamesforgames
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.