Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Sci-fi

Only 10 developers shipped a paid Sci-fi Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wildgate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 68 more are announced, ×17 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $60 against a market of $1.3k. 68 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 68 announced, ×17 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $2.2k → $657 → $13k → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 79
Announced 68
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 47%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 77% positive over 5,082 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $4.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×17 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
DEPLOYMENT older $14.99 951 85% 29k $428k (exactly $427,665) Whale Rock Games
SUPER BOMBERMAN R 2 older $49.99 149 53% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) KONAMI
Multiwinia older $11.99 409 82% 12k $147k (exactly $147,117) Introversion Software
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
universe treasure older $13.99 91 58% 2.7k $38k (exactly $38,193) モンスター研
Furry Arena [18+] older $1.99 599 64% 18k $36k (exactly $35,760) Octo Games
Fast Royal $14.99 30 100% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Edos Interactive
LASERS older $2.99 127 66% 3.8k $11k (exactly $11,392) Straight Back Games
A Summer with the Shiba Inu older $8.99 30 96% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) Quill Game Studios
CRAST $5.99 14 35% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Qazaq Games Studio
Bald Guys · EA $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Kazooist LLC
Skully Bunnies · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Chick Meow Studios
Battle $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) DIG Games
Space Vortex $25.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hosny
Resist Mutants $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) WANG BAIMING
STICKMAN DX : MEGA FIGHTERS $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) LITTLE Z
Skyliners $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Skeleton Arm Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.