Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Runner

Only 14 developers shipped a Runner Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Only Out, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $240 against a market of $1.3k. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $240 → $3.6k → $180
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 45
Announced 15
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Runner
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 123 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $240, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $5.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SQUID GIRLS 18+ 2022 · $42k FALL GIRLS 2022 · $39k Only Out 2025 · $6.0k CD-RUN 2019 · $4.5k Crab Game 2 2024 · $4.3k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SQUID GIRLS 18+ older $6.99 198 60% 5.9k $42k (exactly $41,521) Squid Developer
FALL GIRLS older $6.99 187 49% 5.6k $39k (exactly $39,214) Squid Developer
Only Out $4.99 40 95% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) Shark Studio
CD-RUN older $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Quack Quack Games
Crab Game 2 $3.99 36 22% 1.1k $4.3k (exactly $4,309) Jeff
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
Turbo Balls $4.99 24 75% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) OneTwoPlay
Car Racing Highway Driving Simulator, real parking driver sim speed traffic deluxe 2023 older $1.99 46 67% 1.4k $2.7k (exactly $2,746) Midnight Games
The Night of Escape $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) LiTang
Egg Game older $0.99 11 90% 330 $327 (exactly $327) DrElliot
Bald Guys · EA $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Kazooist LLC
Delivery Service : Courier $7.99 1 0% 30 $240 (exactly $240) DW
Bouncy Escape $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Daniel Sitkiewicz
SlimeIsland $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) ZHOU YANG
Courage Gauntlet Challenge $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Shine Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.