Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RPG Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + RPG

Of 32 developers who shipped an RPG Battle Royale in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 80 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 3750% on the market, 80 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $599 → $299 → $390 → $89 → $3.2k → $480 (still earning) → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,277)
Top 5% $254k (exactly $253,603)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 173
Announced 80
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3750% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Immersive Sim, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 6,855 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
武侠乂 The Swordsmen X older $24.99 2,415 46% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,810,526) 上海杜昂网络科技有限公司
RUSSIA BATTLEGROUNDS older $2.99 3,788 77% 114k $340k (exactly $339,784) Agafonoff
Ancient Wars: Sparta Definitive Edition · EA older $19.99 453 74% 14k $272k (exactly $271,664) JOTASOFT STUDIOS
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
SUPER BOMBERMAN R 2 older $49.99 149 53% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) KONAMI
The Joker's Game $11.99 486 82% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) All In Game Co., Limited
Egress older $14.99 107 58% 3.2k $48k (exactly $48,118) Fazan
Eve of Souls: Static Pod · EA older $2.99 468 95% 14k $42k (exactly $41,980) LighTea Fish Studio
惊险极速 · EA older $6.99 91 97% 2.7k $19k (exactly $19,083) 个人
烧尾宴 $8.99 52 75% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) 有点正经
Damsels in Distress $8.99 36 83% 1.1k $9.7k (exactly $9,709) Anime Mania
Code Velocity $2.99 99 100% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) STIM GAMES
Only Out $4.99 40 95% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) Shark Studio
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede
Final Word Royale $4.99 30 60% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) NyxWorks
Adventurer's Gambit: Dungeons of Fortune $12.99 11 81% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Astana Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.