Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Physics

Of 26 developers who shipped a Physics Battle Royale in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.3 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 69 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 35% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 69 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $2.1k → $1.2k → $898 → $599 → $1.9k → $269 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $13,491)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 95
Announced 69
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Character Customization
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 578 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Contractors Showdown : ExfilZone 2024 · $2.0M TramSim Munich - The Tram Simulator 2021 · $570k Last Man Sitting 2026 · $107k Mad Streets 2022 · $90k Arkanoid - Eternal Battle 2022 · $73k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contractors Showdown : ExfilZone older $19.99 3,353 68% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,010,794) Caveman Studio
TramSim Munich - The Tram Simulator older $34.99 543 67% 16k $570k (exactly $569,987) ViewApp
Last Man Sitting $9.99 357 77% 11k $107k (exactly $106,993) DoubleMoose Games
Mad Streets older $14.99 200 85% 6.0k $90k (exactly $89,940) Craftshop Arts Inc.
Arkanoid - Eternal Battle older $9.99 245 66% 7.4k $73k (exactly $73,426) Pastagames
FALL GIRLS older $6.99 187 49% 5.6k $39k (exactly $39,214) Squid Developer
Perfect Partner older $8.99 107 79% 3.2k $29k (exactly $28,858) RD Studio
Rocket Bot Royale older $2.99 243 88% 7.3k $22k (exactly $21,797) Winterpixel Games
OutRage: Fight Fest older $9.99 62 77% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Hardball Games Ltd
Huge Jaws older $24.99 23 65% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) Piece Of Voxel
Fast Royal $14.99 30 100% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Edos Interactive
A Smithing Game $3.99 79 79% 2.4k $9.5k (exactly $9,456) Zoteling
GOKA Street · EA $4.99 44 86% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Blay Games
Crab Game 2 $3.99 36 22% 1.1k $4.3k (exactly $4,309) Jeff
Flood $6.99 9 100% 270 $1.9k (exactly $1,887) SCHIZO GAMES
Car Guys $5.99 9 33% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Ruben Alcañiz
Carnage Battle Arena $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Boombit
War Job $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Stupid games
Toilet Battle $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) BBK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.