Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Modern

Only 4 developers shipped a paid Modern-Day Battle Royale in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 8 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 9 more are announced, ×9.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $550k against a market of $1.3k. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 406.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 9 announced, ×9.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Battle Royale + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $36k (exactly $35,760)
Top 25% $78M (exactly $77,799,231)
Top 5% $620M (exactly $620,339,567)
Developers, 4 yr 8
Released games 25
Announced 9
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 44%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 9 games average 65% positive over 340,539 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $36k, 1 in 4 over $77M, 1 in 20 over $620M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×9.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® older $59.99 43,229 79% 1.3M $78M (exactly $77,799,231) Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software)
Last Remains · EA $19.99 914 51% 27k $548k (exactly $548,126) Earn Alliance
Who's Who? older $4.99 350 75% 11k $52k (exactly $52,395) G1 Playground
Furry Arena [18+] older $1.99 599 64% 18k $36k (exactly $35,760) Octo Games
Dig Deep: Race To The Core! older $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Deluded Inc
Royale Battle: Warzone older $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) InScienceGames, Matt Scala
Dangerous FightCIA older $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) SHM, CIA_inc, CIA INC
Glass Bridge older $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) 李子卫
BlastLast $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Alexoid Studio
Trail Racer $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Seoul Season
Powerjackers - VR Superhero Battle Royale older $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Robert Hendry Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.