Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Magic

Only 6 developers shipped a paid Magic Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mistfall Hunter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 33 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $420 against a market of $1.3k. 33 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 33 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Battle Royale + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $420 (exactly $420)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $12,028,936)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 47
Announced 33
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 49%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 54% positive over 16,827 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $420, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 33 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
WARCANA older $16.99 443 62% 13k $226k (exactly $225,797) 1000 Orks
TOUHOU SKY ARENA MATSURI CLIMAX older $19.99 200 86% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) AREAZERO
惊险极速 · EA older $6.99 91 97% 2.7k $19k (exactly $19,083) 个人
Nine Nights older $12.99 21 76% 630 $8.2k (exactly $8,184) Li Hui
Archipelago: Island Survival $9.99 4 25% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) FrostFire
Hentai Fantasy World older $1.99 16 68% 480 $955 (exactly $955) Who We Are Games
Soulfire : Weapon Master · EA older $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) AyDream Co., Ltd.
CREATURES older $24.99 1 0% 30 $750 (exactly $750) RaxPlay, CREATURES
Dragon War · EA older $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) QJ
Legends' Battlegrounds · EA $13.99 1 0% 30 $420 (exactly $420) Joy Abstraction
Skully Bunnies · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Chick Meow Studios
The Hermit and the Witch $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Roy Wilson
Masters of Magic · EA $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) YC Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.