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Should I ship a Magic Battle Royale?
Battle Royale + Magic
Only 6 developers shipped a paid Magic Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mistfall Hunter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 33 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $420 against a market of $1.3k. 33 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $420 (exactly $420) |
| Top 25% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 5% | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 47 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 49%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Battle Royale
- effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
- Magic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- Battle Royale
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 54% positive over 16,827 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 33 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Immersive SimFair
- + MysteryLong shot
- + LootPoor odds
- + SportsPoor odds
- + Hero ShooterPoor odds
- + PuzzlePoor odds
- + Psychological HorrorPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + 4 Player LocalPoor odds
- + RoguelitePoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mistfall Hunter | $24.99 | 16,045 53% | 481k | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) | Bellring Games | |
| | WARCANA | older | $16.99 | 443 62% | 13k | $226k (exactly $225,797) | 1000 Orks |
| | TOUHOU SKY ARENA MATSURI CLIMAX | older | $19.99 | 200 86% | 6.0k | $120k (exactly $119,940) | AREAZERO |
| | 惊险极速 | · EA older | $6.99 | 91 97% | 2.7k | $19k (exactly $19,083) | 个人 |
| | Nine Nights | older | $12.99 | 21 76% | 630 | $8.2k (exactly $8,184) | Li Hui |
| | Archipelago: Island Survival | $9.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | FrostFire | |
| | Hentai Fantasy World | older | $1.99 | 16 68% | 480 | $955 (exactly $955) | Who We Are Games |
| | Soulfire : Weapon Master | · EA older | $6.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $839 (exactly $839) | AyDream Co., Ltd. |
| | CREATURES | older | $24.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $750 (exactly $750) | RaxPlay, CREATURES |
| | Dragon War | · EA older | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | QJ |
| | Legends' Battlegrounds | · EA | $13.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $420 (exactly $420) | Joy Abstraction |
| | Skully Bunnies | · EA | $1.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $60 (exactly $60) | Chick Meow Studios |
| | The Hermit and the Witch | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Roy Wilson | |
| | Masters of Magic | · EA | $6.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | YC Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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