Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Horror

Only 18 developers shipped a Horror Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Final Sentence, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 34 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $359 → $480 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $480 (exactly $480)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,433)
Top 5% $328k (exactly $328,172)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 53
Announced 34
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival Horror, PvP, Survival
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $480, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Final Sentence $9.99 1,095 84% 33k $328k (exactly $328,172) Button Mash
Bean Battles older $0.99 6,783 94% 203k $201k (exactly $201,455) Gupa Games
Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) older $19.99 188 81% 5.6k $113k (exactly $112,744) FREE STYLE, Inc., KONAMI
Among Ass older $4.99 378 80% 11k $57k (exactly $56,587) Volens Nolens Games
Eve of Souls: Static Pod · EA older $2.99 468 95% 14k $42k (exactly $41,980) LighTea Fish Studio
NIGHT CROW older $15.99 85 68% 2.6k $41k (exactly $40,774) Ge-Aivan
Back:Fade $6.99 191 76% 5.7k $40k (exactly $40,053) MYSTERY CROWN
Vienkiemis · EA $12.99 44 100% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) dssob, SMEIVIS
Five Nights: No Escape older $9.99 33 66% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Fun Cradle
Only Out $4.99 40 95% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) Shark Studio
Idiom Royale $1.99 91 63% 2.7k $5.4k (exactly $5,433) NyxWorks
CipherMind $7.99 18 77% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Pigeon Games
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
鬼灵的冒险GUILING's Adventure $1.99 54 94% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) 硅晶石工作室Sicrystal Studio
SurrounDead Poly ‌Japan Sakura · EA $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) LivingEveryday
Roach Royale $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) MOLOT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.