Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Futuristic

Only 4 developers shipped a paid Futuristic Battle Royale in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 14 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 44 more are announced, ×44 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $60 against a market of $1.3k. 44 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 44 announced, ×44 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Battle Royale + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $57,912)
Developers, 4 yr 14
Released games 51
Announced 44
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 51%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 944 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $660, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×44 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
universe treasure older $13.99 91 58% 2.7k $38k (exactly $38,193) モンスター研
Furry Arena [18+] older $1.99 599 64% 18k $36k (exactly $35,760) Octo Games
HardPunch: Sex Plague older $11.99 51 41% 1.5k $18k (exactly $18,345) by Cassandra
Zaacar · EA older $11.99 13 38% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Axoora
CRAST $5.99 14 35% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Qazaq Games Studio
Burst Planet · EA older $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) KX Games
ShadowStorm older $14.99 5 80% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Still connect
Space Nations - Battlearena · EA older $13.99 4 100% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) Linked Bits
EX_Holics.exe older $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Gushala
Riverside Gals / 大乱闘リバーサイドギャルズ $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) 黒の御者団
Quick coin run away $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SHEN XIAO JIANG
Skyliners $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Skeleton Arm Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.