Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Flight

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Flight Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Flight

Only 6 developers shipped a Flight Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SHARKS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×9.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $180 against a market of $1.3k. 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 19 announced, ×9.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Flight
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Battle Royale + Flight: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $300 (exactly $300)
Top 5% $359 (exactly $359)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 37
Announced 19
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Flight
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 266 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $300, 1 in 20 over $350.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Wraith of the Galaxy 2023 · EA · $58k Food Chain 2020 · EA · $17k RIP 2019 · EA · $3.9k Space Nations - Battlearena 2021 · EA · $1.7k DOGFIGHTER -WW2- 2020 · $1.2k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
Food Chain · EA older $7.99 69 59% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Kozhakov
RIP · EA older $9.99 13 46% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) INVERTED SOULS
Space Nations - Battlearena · EA older $13.99 4 100% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) Linked Bits
DOGFIGHTER -WW2- older $7.99 5 20% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) GRUMPY, IBONG, IGGYMOB
EX_Holics.exe older $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Gushala
Ukraine Defender older $2.99 7 71% 210 $628 (exactly $628) devrifter
Dragon War · EA older $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) QJ
SHARKS · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Ezone PTY LTD
Paper Planes · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Creekside Interactive
Drone Fire $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) QplusQ
World Guesser · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Artists Company
Space Vortex $25.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hosny
Skyliners $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Skeleton Arm Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.