Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Fantasy

Of 23 developers who shipped a paid Fantasy Battle Royale in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 75 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 75 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 75 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $987 → $657 → $60 → $449 → $1.2k → $59 (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,290)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $52,462)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 119
Announced 75
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 45%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 54% positive over 16,413 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M WARCANA 2024 · $226k TOUHOU SKY ARENA MATSURI CLIMAX 2020 · $120k Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) 2022 · $113k Dawn of Anarchy 2025 · $52k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
WARCANA older $16.99 443 62% 13k $226k (exactly $225,797) 1000 Orks
TOUHOU SKY ARENA MATSURI CLIMAX older $19.99 200 86% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) AREAZERO
Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) older $19.99 188 81% 5.6k $113k (exactly $112,744) FREE STYLE, Inc., KONAMI
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
universe treasure older $13.99 91 58% 2.7k $38k (exactly $38,193) モンスター研
Bounty Battle older $19.99 39 20% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Dark Screen Games
Vienkiemis · EA $12.99 44 100% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) dssob, SMEIVIS
FMTC $7.00 75 78% 2.3k $16k (exactly $15,750) FMTC
Zombie sanctuary: Ash older $69.99 6 66% 180 $13k (exactly $12,598) 7miao game
A Smithing Game $3.99 79 79% 2.4k $9.5k (exactly $9,456) Zoteling
Hololive Fantasy Battle $13.00 11 90% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,290) G-Blossom
Adventurer's Gambit: Dungeons of Fortune $12.99 11 81% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Astana Games
Quack Attack $9.99 14 71% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Illutrium
Archipelago: Island Survival $9.99 4 25% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) FrostFire
Smokin Potions $7.99 5 80% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Sleeping Robot Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.