Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Dark Fantasy

Only 9 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mistfall Hunter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $330 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 29 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $330 → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $330 (exactly $330)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $12,028,936)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 29
Announced 29
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 54% positive over 16,629 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $330, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) 2022 · $113k Egress 2019 · $48k Bounty Battle 2020 · $23k A Smithing Game 2026 · $9.5k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) older $19.99 188 81% 5.6k $113k (exactly $112,744) FREE STYLE, Inc., KONAMI
Egress older $14.99 107 58% 3.2k $48k (exactly $48,118) Fazan
Bounty Battle older $19.99 39 20% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Dark Screen Games
A Smithing Game $3.99 79 79% 2.4k $9.5k (exactly $9,456) Zoteling
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
鬼灵的冒险GUILING's Adventure $1.99 54 94% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) 硅晶石工作室Sicrystal Studio
Among Ass 2: Butt Warfare older $0.99 98 84% 2.9k $2.9k (exactly $2,911) Volens Nolens Games
Gladiator of sparta older $9.99 3 33% 90 $899 (exactly $899) LFR games
Soulfire : Weapon Master · EA older $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) AyDream Co., Ltd.
PSI Masquerade Deadly Wonderland $10.99 1 0% 30 $330 (exactly $330) Mururunsoft
Halls of the damned $0.99 4 25% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Team EX
Skully Bunnies · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Chick Meow Studios
Altar $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Fernino
The Forgotten Killer $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) The Forgotten Killer Hub, spatenbraten,… (The Forgotten Killer Hub, spatenbraten, king_lucas14, lavirhahha)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.