Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Collectathon

Only 7 developers shipped a Collectathon Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lunars, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 10 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Battle Royale + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $359 (exactly $359)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $17,988)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 28
Announced 10
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Collectathon
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 1,047 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kukoro: Stream chat games older $4.99 913 97% 27k $137k (exactly $136,676) HeyNau
Lunars · EA $14.99 40 97% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Anubis Arts
Anzeigen Simulator · EA older $4.99 59 84% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) SalsaShark Studios
Battle Tops older $3.99 19 89% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Dylan
BattleClaws · EA older $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) DameGev, EveryPlanet, Gronkiee, endoran
Call of Dusk older $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Luiz Otávio da Silva
SHARKS · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Ezone PTY LTD
BIG BALLS · EA $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) BIG BALL
Panic of the Apes · EA $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Adam Weaver
Arcane Bastion older $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Bastion Studios
进化岛:Jinhuadao $16.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 古德模型, goodmoxing
SHADE WALKERS $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Cross Novaris Studio
Endless Robot dash $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 0cd studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.