Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 8 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Joker's Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.0k against a market of $1.3k. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2825% on the market, 15 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Battle Royale + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $68,377)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $174,814)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 33
Announced 15
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2825% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 708 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloodshore older $14.99 826 68% 25k $371k (exactly $371,452) Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Way… (Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Wayout Pictures, Posterity Entertainment)
The Joker's Game $11.99 486 82% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) All In Game Co., Limited
Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love $29.99 76 92% 2.3k $68k (exactly $68,377) ASa Project
Five Nights: No Escape older $9.99 33 66% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Fun Cradle
Damsels in Distress $8.99 36 83% 1.1k $9.7k (exactly $9,709) Anime Mania
The Great Axe $19.99 13 84% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Gamesforgames
Only Out $4.99 40 95% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) Shark Studio
Hitler Loves Anime older $1.99 79 82% 2.4k $4.7k (exactly $4,716) PaulArt
Winning Tactics $9.99 14 78% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Summoner's Automata $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Difficult times $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Doomvile Brainrot $0.99 15 66% 450 $446 (exactly $446) Gamesforgames
Omega Luma : The First Battle $12.99 1 0% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Mavi Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.