Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Multiple Endings

Only 14 developers shipped a Multiple Endings Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Keep Driving, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×2229 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 12 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $898 → $1.0k → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,025)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,767)
Top 5% $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 34
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Resource Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 6,482 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 12 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  7. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  10. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  11. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds20 devs · median $17k · 17 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
Border Officer older $9.99 1,294 57% 39k $388k (exactly $387,812) Cheesecake Dev
Ashes of the Union older $12.99 407 63% 12k $159k (exactly $158,608) 700 Games Studio
SIMULACRA 3 older $9.99 328 56% 9.8k $98k (exactly $98,302) Kaigan Games
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Jeepney Simulator older $5.99 125 90% 3.8k $22k (exactly $22,462) Spacezero Interactive
Life in red line · EA $17.99 26 76% 780 $14k (exactly $14,032) Pecha games
Nightvision: Drive Forever older $17.99 19 78% 570 $10k (exactly $10,254) Hoodust Enterprises
Drift Reign older $5.99 47 55% 1.4k $8.4k (exactly $8,446) PublishMe Agency Limited
The Vanishing Train | ワンマン列車 $2.99 42 66% 1.3k $3.8k (exactly $3,767) RAYBIS GAMES
Mystery Digger: Definitive Edition $2.99 22 59% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) Gepnito Games
Real Car Parking Simulator $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) FortStar
Checkpoint Inc $4.27 8 75% 240 $1.0k (exactly $1,025) Punchers
8th Avenue $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) No Mad Studio
中国式富豪 $6.99 4 25% 120 $839 (exactly $839) 大米粥工作室
Ultimate Car Company Tycoon · EA $6.99 3 33% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Tengrava Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.