Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Co-op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Co-op

Of 46 developers who shipped a Co-op Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $70k, ×47 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $38M, ×25424 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 60 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 46.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 60 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Co-op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $177k → $20k → $28k → $13M → $188k → $60k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Co-op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Median $70k (exactly $70,153)
Top 25% $893k (exactly $893,402)
Top 5% $38M (exactly $38,084,882)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 129
Announced 60
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Co-op; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Simulation, Online Co-Op
Price point
$15.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 387,461 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.1k, median $70k, 1 in 4 over $890k, 1 in 20 over $38M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.1k. 3 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  10. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  11. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds20 devs · median $17k · 17 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
CarX Drift Racing Online older $16.99 82,720 95% 2.5M $42M (exactly $42,162,384) CarX Technologies, LLC
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
Farming Simulator 19 older $17.99 64,621 94% 1.9M $35M (exactly $34,875,954) GIANTS Software
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 older $19.99 48,366 91% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,005,090) Red Dot Games
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Car Service Together · EA $19.99 3,589 79% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) V12 Studio
Project Motor Racing $39.99 1,181 45% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) Straight4 Studios
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.