Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Asynchronous Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer RPG?

RPG + Asynchronous Multiplayer

Of 38 developers who shipped a paid Asynchronous Multiplayer RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 70 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×15530 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 70 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 70 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Asynchronous Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $128k → $3.0k → $17k → $807 (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Asynchronous Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $53,347)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 102
Announced 70
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 43%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Asynchronous Multiplayer; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 23,159 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 5 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Halloween: The Game 2026 · $14M Rise of the Ronin 2025 · $9.8M Despot's Game: Dystopian Battle Simulator 2022 · $1.7M Shadow Empire 2020 · $1.7M Dwarven Realms 2024 · $854k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Despot's Game: Dystopian Battle Simulator older $19.99 2,878 83% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,725,937) Konfa Games
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Chaos Reborn older $9.99 819 74% 25k $245k (exactly $245,454) Snapshot Games Inc.
NEODUEL: Backpack Monsters $11.99 357 79% 11k $128k (exactly $128,413) dicehit, Rogue Duck Interactive
Doom & Destiny Advanced older $9.99 404 90% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Heartbit Interactive
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
Paper Animal Adventure · EA $14.99 139 95% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Cuddling Raccoons Studio
Empyreal $14.99 123 69% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Silent Games
Saga & Seeker $9.99 178 57% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Dagdoria Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.