Should I ship an Assassin RPG?
RPG + Assassins
Of 28 developers who shipped an Assassin RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 70 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 1690% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $539 (exactly $539) |
| Top 25% | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) |
| Top 5% | $17M (exactly $17,414,516) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 28 |
| Released games | 114 |
| Announced | 70 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1690% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 47,910 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M 
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Assassin's Creed® Origins 2017 · $216M 
Assassin's Creed Valhalla 2022 · $74M 
Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Assassin's Creed® Origins | older | $59.99 | 119,764 85% | 3.6M | $216M (exactly $215,539,271) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed Valhalla | older | $59.99 | 41,083 70% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $73,937,075) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
 | Assassin's Creed® Unity | older | $29.99 | 79,116 77% | 2.4M | $71M (exactly $71,180,665) | Ubisoft |
 | Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™ | older | $19.99 | 63,815 92% | 1.9M | $38M (exactly $38,269,856) | Monolith Productions |
 | Assassin's Creed® Syndicate | older | $29.99 | 31,087 80% | 933k | $28M (exactly $27,968,974) | Ubisoft Quebec, in collaboration with U… (Ubisoft Quebec, in collaboration with Ubisoft Annecy, Bucharest, Kiev, Montreal, Montpellier, Shanghai, Singapore, Sofia, Toronto studios) |
 | Dishonored | older | $9.99 | 67,504 97% | 2.0M | $20M (exactly $20,230,949) | Arkane Studios |
 | Assassin's Creed® III Remastered | older | $39.99 | 14,646 63% | 439k | $18M (exactly $17,570,806) | Ubisoft Entertainment |
 | Assassin's Creed Mirage | $49.99 | 11,612 76% | 348k | $17M (exactly $17,414,516) | Ubisoft Bordeaux | |
 | Evil School | $7.99 | 1,058 92% | 32k | $254k (exactly $253,603) | CineGame Interactive | |
 | DISORDER | $29.99 | 123 50% | 3.7k | $111k (exactly $110,663) | GRUMPY | |
 | 烧尾宴 | $8.99 | 52 75% | 1.6k | $14k (exactly $14,024) | 有点正经 | |
 | Samurai: Ronin's Path | $4.99 | 79 56% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $11,826) | GameHunters | |
 | Kebabstar 🌯⭐ | · EA | $14.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) | Zeybek |
 | Empire of Vice : Chicago | · EA | $16.99 | 9 77% | 270 | $4.6k (exactly $4,587) | Artifex Parvus |
 | Assassin's Shadows | $14.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) | Noxurtica | |
 | Pretty Agent 2 | $4.99 | 7 28% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | MC GAME |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.