Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Investigation game?

Investigation + Assassins

Only 18 developers shipped an Assassin Investigation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 36 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 7070% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 7070% on the market, 36 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $3.6k → $359 → $360 → $1.6k
Outcomes for Investigation + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $114 (exactly $114)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,753)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $203,898)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 49
Announced 36
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 7070% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 516 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.7k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
NO, THANK YOU!!! older $39.99 180 87% 5.4k $216k (exactly $215,946) parade
Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow $19.99 340 75% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) Maze Theory
Eville older $14.99 433 68% 13k $195k (exactly $194,720) VestGames
GAME.exe older $3.99 415 83% 12k $50k (exactly $49,676) Punx Studios
Lycans older $4.99 309 91% 9.3k $46k (exactly $46,257) Onu Games
江华号 older $9.99 132 70% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,560) 知音动漫
Beyond R: Rule Ripper $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Tohriv, GJ Staff
French Crime Detective Game older $19.99 40 92% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Rakame 7
The Divine Deception older $14.99 38 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Themisian
Detective Penguin $6.99 54 87% 1.6k $11k (exactly $11,324) That Other Fish, That Fish
Midnight Saturn $9.99 28 82% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Cosmic Void
CrimeBot 2: Detective Mystery Games $7.99 24 50% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) RoboBot Studio
Don't Stop In Red Wood $8.99 6 83% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Diego Victor
Dean Archer Stories: The Missing Detective $0.99 22 95% 660 $653 (exactly $653) Sneaky Peek, Nacho Grela
Corcovado's Night Guard $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) LuGuMiVi Games
HUNTED $3.00 4 0% 120 $360 (exactly $360) Marcos moreira
Classroom Whispers $2.99 4 75% 120 $359 (exactly $359) La Oreja de Vancho Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.