Games › RPG › RPG + Artificial Intelligence
Should I ship an AI RPG?
RPG + Artificial Intelligence
Of 219 developers who shipped an AI RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 324 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×478 the market median. Revenue is up 360% on the market; 324 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $298 (exactly $298) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,063) |
| Top 25% | $26k (exactly $26,372) |
| Top 5% | $300k (exactly $299,950) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 219 |
| Released games | 458 |
| Announced | 324 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Artificial Intelligence
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 335,974 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 112 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 324 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road 2025 · $23M 
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered 2024 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road | $69.99 | 11,180 88% | 335k | $23M (exactly $23,474,646) | LEVEL5 Inc. | |
| | Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered | $49.99 | 6,860 84% | 206k | $10M (exactly $10,287,942) | Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software | |
 | RUNNING WITH RIFLES | older | $14.99 | 14,676 87% | 440k | $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) | Osumia Games |
 | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
 | SpaceBourne 2 | $19.99 | 4,951 75% | 149k | $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) | Burak Dabak | |
 | FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE | $14.99 | 4,131 89% | 124k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) | IT'S A TRAP | |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Last Recollection | older | $59.99 | 450 58% | 14k | $810k (exactly $809,865) | AQURIA Co., Ltd. |
 | Happy Island Fantasy | $14.99 | 1,186 88% | 36k | $533k (exactly $533,344) | HappyCreator | |
 | Whispers from the Star | $9.99 | 1,662 80% | 50k | $498k (exactly $498,101) | Anuttacon | |
 | 恋爱吗？我家猫会后空翻 | $9.99 | 1,508 96% | 45k | $452k (exactly $451,948) | 光循花火工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.