Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Investigation game?

Investigation + Artificial Intelligence

Of 43 developers who shipped an AI Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×472 the market median. Revenue is up 530% on the market; 73 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 530% on the market, 73 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.7k → $718 → $2.3k → $713 → $15k → $1.1k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $416 (exactly $416)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,990)
Top 5% $224k (exactly $224,288)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 118
Announced 73
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 530% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,858 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
Ghost Exorcism INC. · EA older $11.99 4,256 76% 128k $1.5M (exactly $1,530,883) StudioGoupil
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Nucleares older $14.99 1,121 84% 34k $504k (exactly $504,114) Iván Marcelo Pretti
Counter Terrorist Agency older $19.99 479 43% 14k $287k (exactly $287,256) Play2Chill
Titanic Escape Simulator™ $19.99 374 52% 11k $224k (exactly $224,288) magicprostudio, Vintage Digital Revival
Blade Runner: Enhanced Edition older $9.99 617 74% 19k $185k (exactly $184,915) Nightdive Studios, Westwood Studios
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios
Lost Lullabies: The Orphanage Chronicles $10.99 445 70% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) Pugsy Studios
NTR Hunter $14.99 119 78% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Team18
Police Officer $11.99 125 65% 3.8k $45k (exactly $44,962) Turquoise Games
My proud girlfriend--Lina Chapter $5.99 210 91% 6.3k $38k (exactly $37,737) zzzgame
60 Minutes to Extinction: Escape Room $7.99 153 82% 4.6k $37k (exactly $36,674) mc2games
执念刑警之消失的证人 $3.99 229 88% 6.9k $27k (exactly $27,411) 迷雾工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.