Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Incremental game?

Incremental + Artificial Intelligence

Of 112 developers who shipped an AI Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 375% on the market; 60 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 375% on the market, 60 announced, ×0.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $683 → $359 → $772 → $1.1k → $628 (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,938)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $223,053)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 256
Announced 60
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 375% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Resource Management
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.50 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.50 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 14,541 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nodebuster older $2.99 13,852 97% 416k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,524) Goblobin
Supermarket Chaos $4.99 3,266 92% 98k $489k (exactly $488,920) BunnyHop
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
Click and Conquer $4.99 2,442 92% 73k $366k (exactly $365,567) SOCKHOUSE STUDIOS
FACEMINER $7.99 1,517 90% 46k $364k (exactly $363,625) Wristwork
Sort Them Ducks $5.99 1,461 92% 44k $263k (exactly $262,542) Mr.Duck
Timber Rush $4.99 1,490 84% 45k $223k (exactly $223,053) Allerton Apps
Hymer 2000 $4.99 1,031 89% 31k $154k (exactly $154,341) doBell
Widget Inc. $4.99 761 84% 23k $114k (exactly $113,922) Leaping Turtle
Carpet Cleaning Simulator $6.99 508 87% 15k $107k (exactly $106,528) daimaGAME
FEED THE AI $5.99 557 90% 17k $100k (exactly $100,093) Weird Kid Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.