Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Arena Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arena Shooter Fighting game?

Fighting + Arena Shooter

Only 14 developers shipped an Arena Shooter Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cyberpunk SFX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×37 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Arena Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Fighting + Arena Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $716 (exactly $716)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,845)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 64
Announced 19
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Arena Shooter
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 284 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Redeemer: Enhanced Edition older $11.99 2,637 87% 79k $949k (exactly $948,529) Sobaka Studio
Shark Attack Deathmatch 2 older $4.99 1,415 74% 42k $212k (exactly $211,826) Lighthouse Games Studio
BOSSGARD older $19.99 125 65% 3.8k $75k (exactly $74,962) Sand Sailor Studio
Saber Fight VR older $14.99 162 65% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Saber Fight VR
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
Gamble Fight Plus older $9.99 149 51% 4.5k $45k (exactly $44,655) One Man Army
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Freefall Tournament older $4.99 103 75% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,419) y8.com
Kindred Fates: Combat Arena older $44.99 9 88% 270 $12k (exactly $12,147) Skymill Studios
69 Ways to Kill a Zombie older $4.99 70 64% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,479) Wadup Games
Deck of Treads $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) DuckByte Games
Slime Battles $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Nish Studios
Shop Town Dooter $8.99 5 100% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) Game Sandwich
BreakBall $7.99 5 100% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) eyedromeda
Hitmen Havoc $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Andreas O., Marvin Pogoda, Maksim Rotma… (Andreas O., Marvin Pogoda, Maksim Rotmann, Richy D.)
Hellfire Rampage VR $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Nazar Korinnyi
The Final Shuffle $5.99 4 50% 120 $719 (exactly $719) KaashFusionStudio
Stopping Santa $1.99 12 100% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Hephaestus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.