Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Archery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Archery game?

Crafting + Archery

Only 9 developers shipped a Crafting Archery game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Zad Archery, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×8.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.4k against a market of $630. 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 35 announced, ×8.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Archery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Crafting + Archery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,350)
Top 5% $168k (exactly $168,389)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 34
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Archery
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 2,693 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Robin Hood - Sherwood Builders older $29.99 1,020 68% 31k $918k (exactly $917,694) MeanAstronauts
Zad Archery $6.99 803 73% 24k $168k (exactly $168,389) Samharia Studios
Eden Island older $14.99 232 58% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) Moon Studio
ScrewUp older $9.99 259 68% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) 199 Cents STUDIO
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
RFVR · EA older $29.99 49 81% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) OMFGames
Tales from The Dancing Moon $17.99 34 88% 1.0k $18k (exactly $18,350) DjMonkey
The Hermit Chronicles older $9.99 39 64% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) WinterTent Studio
Ephesus older $2.99 85 51% 2.6k $7.6k (exactly $7,625) The Pack Studios
Map Of Materials older $3.99 50 80% 1.5k $6.0k (exactly $5,985) Mike Engler
South America Gold Rush · EA $9.99 9 44% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Argo Games
Aevalore $4.99 16 81% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Aevalore
Forsaken Shores · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Kuldan Studio
Hill Defender · EA $3.99 9 77% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) Jendimir
Survivors Dawn: Zombie World $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Uygar Bursalıoğlu
Path of Clicks $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) FANE Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.