Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade RTS?

RTS + Arcade

Of 42 developers who shipped an Arcade RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 23 developers shipped in the last year and 54 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 54 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $2.2k → $2.3k → $178 → $299 → $180 → $119 (still earning) → $810 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $810 (exactly $810)
Top 5% $5.1k (exactly $5,090)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 131
Announced 54
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Real Time Tactics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2.5D, 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 188 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $180, 1 in 4 over $810, 1 in 20 over $5.0k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. All of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Space Rangers HD: A War Apart 2013 · $2.6M Cavalry Girls 2023 · $675k Toy Soldiers: Complete 2016 · $445k CastleStorm 2013 · $378k Anomaly: Warzone Earth 2011 · $303k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Space Rangers HD: A War Apart older $14.99 5,848 94% 175k $2.6M (exactly $2,629,846) SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Int… (SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Interactive)
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Toy Soldiers: Complete older $14.99 989 78% 30k $445k (exactly $444,753) Signal Studios, Krome Studios
CastleStorm older $9.99 1,262 89% 38k $378k (exactly $378,221) Zen Studios
Anomaly: Warzone Earth older $9.99 1,010 84% 30k $303k (exactly $302,697) 11 bit studios
Revenge of the Titans older $14.99 665 81% 20k $299k (exactly $299,050) Puppygames
Darwinia older $11.99 781 78% 23k $281k (exactly $280,926) Introversion Software
Attack on Toys · EA older $6.99 1,158 93% 35k $243k (exactly $242,833) N7T-GAMES
Command & Conquer Renegade™ older $6.96 851 83% 26k $178k (exactly $177,689) Westwood Studios
The Bluecoats: North & South older $14.99 176 61% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) Appeal Studios
IRON GUARD: Salvation $17.99 44 93% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Xlab Digital
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede
Sunstone War $4.99 34 97% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) Blukulélé, Cyrolis Dev
PipeFlow $9.99 16 75% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Sharkgame
HoloCafe $4.99 28 100% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Kevinfu510
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
Frog Adventure $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Gamesforgames
JAIL DICE: Roll to Break $6.99 8 100% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) GyoonyGames
Who's beast $1.99 21 100% 630 $1.3k (exactly $1,254) Progrediens Studio
Lunokhod $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lunokhod Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.