Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Arcade game?

Programming + Arcade

Only 14 developers shipped a Programming Arcade game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Talented, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.9k → $182k → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,549)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,058)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 43
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Immersive Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Text-Based
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,330 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games
hack_me older $5.99 1,454 68% 44k $261k (exactly $261,284) Egor Magurin, Eugene Radaev
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
IT Specialist Simulator · EA $13.99 433 74% 13k $182k (exactly $181,730) Pixel Team RED
Open Hexagon older $4.99 460 96% 14k $69k (exactly $68,862) Vittorio Romeo
Triple Take older $6.99 55 83% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,534) FlyAway Studios
Kinetype · EA $6.99 36 83% 1.1k $7.5k (exactly $7,549) Morlytic
UNFAIR older $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) SOLIDS Studio
Robo Do It older $4.99 32 75% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) Angel Carriola
CPU Invaders - Aim Hero $0.99 53 100% 1.6k $1.6k (exactly $1,574) Microblast Games
GRID/ $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) NoeNoe Games
Malware City $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ludos Forge
Nick's Saturday Morning Games (NSMG) · EA $0.99 8 100% 240 $238 (exactly $238) Croaking Kero
Press&Release $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) 악마
Typo! $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) unNamed

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.