Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Fighting game?

Fighting + Arcade

Of 94 developers who shipped an Arcade Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×1981 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 127 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 127 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $35k → $1.2k → $9.5k → $1.9k → $4.5k → $3.1k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,745)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 496
Announced 127
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, PvP
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 38,374 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Mortal Kombat 1 older $49.99 34,197 74% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,285,241) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Rivals of Aether older $29.99 33,284 96% 999k $30M (exactly $29,945,615) Aether Studios
Injustice™ 2 older $49.99 17,445 86% 523k $26M (exactly $26,162,266) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Invincible VS $49.99 3,031 76% 91k $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) Quarter Up
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves $19.99 3,135 82% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,880,059) SNK CORPORATION
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Capcom Fighting Collection 2 $39.99 734 85% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DEAD OR ALIVE 6 Last Round $39.99 550 31% 17k $660k (exactly $659,835) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.